Friday, October 23, 2015

Orkaan Patricia

Pühapäev, 19:15 talveaja järgi - südaööks vastu tänast(suveaja järgi) kaotas Patricia troopilised omadused ning praegu tekitab ta probleeme niigi juba viimased päevad üüratute sajukoguste all äganud Texases. F1 Austinis võib täna huvitav olla. The Weather Channeli artikkel praegusest vihmaolukorrast.
16:55 - Pea vist plahvatab vol 2 - mõnel pool välismeedias on väidetud, et orkaani haibiti üle. Jälle see sama vana meilgi levinud "meil ei olnud, seega kuskil ei olnud" suhtumine! Praegu paistab, et kõige hullem osa tabas suuremast asustusest mõnevõrra eemal ning tuletage meelde eilseid meeldetuletusi kitsa tuultevälja kohta - see, et mõni turist kuskil kuurordis katastroofist pääses ei tähenda tingimata, et ennustus vastu taevast lendas. Pigem peaks ta oma õnnetähte tänama. Laskem kahjuteadetel sisse tulla. Patricia jätkub endiselt kiiresti nõrgenemist, kella 15 seisuga oli ta troopiline torm 22 m/s maksimumtuultega ning ma ei imestaks kui kell 18 klassifitseeritakse ta juba troopiliseks madalrõhkkonnaks - 1 minuti keskmine tuul alla 8 palli.
12:03 - Mu pea vist plahvatab kohe - ERR raadiouudistes öeldi äsja, et Patricia on nõrgenenud "2. kategooriani ehk troopiliseks tormiks". Just tuli ka kella 12'ne teade, selle järgi on Patricias maksimaalne 1 minuti tuule kiirus 33 m/s, seega vaid napilt 1. kategooria orkaan.
07:40 - Niigi juba vihmaga ning uputustega kimpus olev Texas saab ka järgmistel päevadel vihma, ja seda juba ka Patricialt. The Weather Channeli artikkel. Cuixmalast on tulnud ka kinnitamata lugem tuulest 82 m/s, puhanguti 94 m/s, kuid kordan - see ei ole kinnitatud.
02:37 - Kiire märkus - nüüd on randumist kinnitanud ka Rahvuslik Orkaanikeskus. Ametlikel andmetel leidis randumine aset kell 2:15 meie aja järgi
02:13 - Kella 2'se satelliidipildi järgi otsustades ei ole enam kahtlust - kese on randunud. Kuid nüüd minu poolt postitused peatuvad, hommikuni!
02:05 - Manzanillo - kus alles tuul undab!
01:51 - 01:30 satelliidipiltide järgi otsustades on Patricia randunud. 
01:09 - Veebikaamera La Manzanillast
Laupäev, 00:31 - Paistab, et randumine on tunni aja jooksul. Viimasel orkaaniluure lennul oli kusjuures näha sekundaarne tuule kiiruse maksimum tsükloni läbilõikes. Nüüd hakkabki tugevate tuulte ala laienema, samas kui tuule tippkiirused nõrgenevad. Meedia on seni keskendunud Puerto Vallartale, kuid ilmselt sellest linnast läheb kese mööda. Siiski saab ilmselt üsna inetu ilm olema ka seal.
23:58 - Ja ka värske teade Orkaanikeskusest kinnitab, et Patricia on hakanud nõrgenema. Keskmes 900 hPa. Tuuled kuni 85 m/s. Endiselt 5. kategooria.
23:52 - Ka satelliidipiltidel on näha silma täitumist. Praegu on orkaan siiski endiselt katastroofilise tugevusega.
23:45 - Paistab, et Patricia on mõnevõrra nõrgenenud. Värske orkaaniluurelennuki ülelend näitas keskmes rõhku 902 hPa, lennukõrgusel tuuli kuni 74 m/s, maapinnal ilmselt siis pigem 65 m/s ümbruses... Peagi uus teade Orkaanikeskuselt.
23:33 - 10 minuti jooksul saame ilmselt teada kuidas tal praegu läheb. Jälgi lennuki liikumist http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon
23:30 - Luurelennuk taas silma poole teel.
23:03 - Infoks - Ajavahe Puerto Vallartaga on 8 tundi. Silma randumiseni on jäänud mõni tund.
22:33 - CNN International räägib Puerto Vallartas oleva elanikuga, kes on rannikust vaid 4 kvartali kaugusel. Ütleb, et on täiesti ettevalmistamata. Tundub, et ta isegi ei tea mida ta täna tegema hakkab.
22:14 - Tundub, et orkaaniluurajatel on mingi jama, arvatavasti instrumentidega. Väldivad orkaani keskmesse taas lendamist.
22:04 - Reporter Guadalajaras CNN Internationali eetris - mõned inimesed evakueerusid ise ilma käsuta kui kuulsid kui tugev see orkaan on.
21:00 - See süveneb endiselt! 879 hPa. Äsja tuli kella 21:00 vahepealne teade
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING CLOSER TO
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 105.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...879 MB...25.96 INCHES
18:25 - Põhisõnum Orkaanikeskuse kella 18 aruteluproduktist:
KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area.  Residents
in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area
should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have
occurred.
 
Kell 18:07 - Sama seis. 90 m/s, 880 hPa. Arvutasin välja ka oma tormiarvu, see on täpselt 6,0. Võrdluseks, aastal 2005 aset leidnud Atlandi karmimale Wilmale arvutasin välja tormiarvuks 5,5 toonaste NHC teadete põhjal.

Twitteris annab aga tormikütt Josh Morgerman tormitsoonist värskemaid uudiseid. Viimased postitused on sellest, kuidas üritatakse enne raju saabumist sobivat varjualust hoida. Küsimus on - kuhu üldse saab varjuda 90 m/s tuule eest - täiustatud Fujita skaalal algab just seal EF5 tugevus. Ja sellise tugevusega tornaado kahjustusi oleme küll näinud(mh. Moore, Oklahoma). Tahan juhtida samas tähelepanu sellele, et maksimaalsed tuuled esinevad vaid väga kitsal alal. Näiteks orkaani tugevusega tuuled ulatuvad kella 18 NHC teate andmetel keskmest ainult 45 km kaugusele. Seega olukorra tõsidus sõltub vägagi sellest, kus tsükloni osas olla.
Kui teate kedagi, kes elab seal regioonis, siis loodan, et nad on olukorrast teadlikud. Võib-olla isegi veenduge ise selles, et nad teaksid.

Algne postitus reedel kell 11:42: Ma lasen lõunastel Rahvusliku Orkaanikeskuse produktidel rääkida enda eest. 880 hPa merepinnal orkaani keskmes, maksimaalne 1 min keskmine tuul 175 sõlme - 90 m/s. Meeletu äkktugevnemine viimase päeva jooksul. Vau.

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West.  Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast this afternoon.  On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area this afternoon or evening.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325
km/h) with higher gusts.  Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions
are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt.  This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins.  The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR.  It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing.  If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today.  The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall.  Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt.  The
track forecast scenario remains about the same.  Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday.  The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend.  Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane.  Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W  180 KT 205 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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