000
FXUS64 KJAN 230926
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
HOLD A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. COOLER
ADVECTION OF AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO HOLD HIGH TEMP
NUMBERS IN THE 60S AT MOST NRN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS TODAY...
KEEPING READINGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
YESTERDAYS CLOUD COVER HAS EDGED OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL EDGE EWD TODAY LEAVING
US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER DRY FRONT APPROACHING TONIGHT.
JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT MOVED IN...RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD TO ALLOW
ADVECTION OF WARM AIR FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT
NEXT IN LINE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THURSDAY IN 925/850 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT 925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB
BACK TO 15-16 DEGS...POSSIBLY 18 DEGS...AT THE 925 MB LEVEL IN THE
SW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOS IS RESPONDING QUICKLY TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE MET MOS ADVERTISING LOWER 80S OVER WCNTRL/SWRN
ZONES. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WARMING TO SUCH A DEGREE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK
SUGGESTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV
MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL USHER ANOTHER COOLER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER NRN ZONES BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD PREVENT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS THE TEMPS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ALSO THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
FROM MISSOURI ON FRIDAY TO GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND THE ARKLAMISS
WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP NEAR 70. GFS MEX
GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH NEAR 30 POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE...SO WILL CUT BELOW GUIDANCE POPS ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND DRIER...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND MOVES A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EITHER WAY WILL
JUST GO WITH MEX GUIDANCE AND INTRODUCE CHANCE SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORMS
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...SO STAY TUNED.15/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LCL IFR/MVFR VSBYS
09Z-13Z BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR OF FOG. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR CLEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 40 73 47 / 0 0 2 4
MERIDIAN 69 37 72 43 / 0 0 2 5
VICKSBURG 69 39 75 47 / 0 0 2 3
HATTIESBURG 72 40 75 48 / 0 0 3 1
NATCHEZ 70 42 75 47 / 0 0 2 2
GREENVILLE 63 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 5
GREENWOOD 63 39 68 41 / 0 0 1 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BURSE/15
Olen tähelepanu väärivad tähed märkinud paksult. Seekord ei ole tegemist siiski poliitilise sõnumiga kellegi aadressil, lihtsalt sünoptik läks pensionile ning see oli tema viimane Piirkonna ennustusarutelu. Sõnum on "Aitäh, JAN". JAN on Jacksonville'i ennustuskontori - tema töökoht - tunnuslühend. Seega, väike hüvastijätusõnum kolleegidele.
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