Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Äikesetormid USA's 17-18. aprillil

19.04 11:08 - Aga ka eilne päev jäi põhiliselt pagituulte ja rahe päevaks. Siiski on SPC'sse tulnud ka 10 raportit tornaadodest.
20:26 - Ohhoo... Alates 16:35 kuni keskööni täna eesti aja järgi. Lisaks on kehtivad veel kaks tornaadovalvet.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   935 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EASTERN ILLINOIS
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
     SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     NORTHWEST OHIO OHIO
     LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
     500 PM EDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
     A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

18:25 - Tunni eest:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
     SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
     WESTERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
     500 PM CDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
/--/
DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW
   FORMATIONS IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS WW AREA WITH
   EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY NEWD...ROUGHLY 40 KT.  GIVEN
   LACK OF CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z LZK RAOB...DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
   AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTION CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT AS WELL.  WARM SECTOR IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE STEADILY
   THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

18:22 - Asi kisub natuke pahaendeliseks. Nashville's saadetakse 18Z üles erakorraline raadiosond.
14:22 - SPC'lt

 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TODAY...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
   PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TODAY.
/--/
 A POWERFUL UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
   TODAY AND AFFECT THE MS AND OH VALLEYS.  A FAST-MOVING LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE RISK
   AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH A
   MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE.  ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH STORMS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.

Peamiselt on ilmselt tegijateks pagituuled, radarpilti vaadates pole ka ime - äikesed on pigem liinile joondunud. Samuti pole välistatud ka mõned tornaadod.
18.04 13:15 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html - SPC'sse on tulnud paar teadet tornaadodest. Seni on valdavalt olnud pigem rahe- ning pagituulte sündmus. Läbi suurte Lagendike on moodustunud suur kvaasilineaarne konvektiivne süsteem. Muuhulgas võib varsti äikese saada Westi linn Texases, kus täna varahommikul eesti aja järgi oli karm tehaseplahvatus.
22:37 - Edela-Oklahomas on puhkenud tugevad äikesed.
20:46 Nii tänaseks kui ka homseks on SPC'lt Moderate Risk.


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
   TRACKED/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
//--//
 WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD
   INTO OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
   SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
   THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
   WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. 
   
   FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
   TEXAS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
   SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44
   CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS ACROSS THE
   ENTIRE REGION WILL MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

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